Okay political nerds and anyone who's ever stayed up way too late refreshing election forecasts listen up. Big news just dropped and it is a bummer: FiveThirtyEight the website that was basically the go-to place for all things polls predictions and data-driven political analysis is shutting down. Yep you read that right. No more election night stress-refreshing on 538.com at least not anymore.
Wait What IS FiveThirtyEight Anyway? A Quick Explainer for the Uninitiated
For those who might be scratching their heads FiveThirtyEight or 538 for short was like the cool kid on the block when it came to explaining politics with numbers. Named after the number of electors in the US Electoral College it was founded by Nate Silver way back in 2008. This website became super famous super fast because Nate Silver pretty much nailed the 2008 election predicting Barack Obama's win with crazy accuracy. Like 49 out of 50 states correct kind of accuracy.
Suddenly everyone was hooked on 538. It wasn't just about polls though. They dug deep into data did cool analyses and made election predictions that people actually trusted or at least obsessed over. It was data journalism at its finest making numbers fun and politics slightly less confusing. It became THE place to watch in the lead-up to any election.
The Bad News: Disney Pulls the Plug on 538 Amidst Broader Cuts at ABC News
So why is this data goldmine disappearing? Apparently Disney which owns ABC News where 538 lived is making some big cuts. Word on the street is they are letting go of around 200 positions across ABC News and Disney Entertainment Networks. And sadly 538 is one of the casualties. The Wall Street Journal broke the news and it's been confirmed by pretty much everyone since.
It's not just 538 either. ABC News is shaking things up merging shows like 20/20 and Nightline and streamlining production teams for Good Morning America. Tough times in the media world for sure. For 538 specifically it means all 15 remaining employees are losing their jobs. This is after years of slow downsizing. At its peak 538 had around 35 people working there so it's been shrinking for a while.
Nate Silver Reacts: "They Deserved Much Better" and Points to Business Challenges
Naturally everyone is wondering what Nate Silver himself thinks about all this. He left 538 a couple of years ago when his contract with Disney ended. He tweeted about the closure saying his "heart goes out to the people there." He praised the 538 team for being "tremendously hard-working" and producing "extremely valuable data and insight." He simply said "They deserved much better."
In a longer post on his Substack Silver hinted at some of the behind-the-scenes issues. He suggested Disney was "never particularly interested in running FiveThirtyEight as a business" even though he thinks it could have been profitable. He mentioned they had an amazing team but lacked the business and product side to really grow and sustain the site. Basically great content not enough business support in a tough media landscape.
Why Now? Tough Times for Media and Maybe Some Polling Fatigue?
The media industry in general has been hit hard with layoffs recently. It's a tough business right now with changing economics and audience habits. FiveThirtyEight isn't immune to these broader trends. Some also point out that polling in general has taken a beating in recent years. After some high-profile misses in elections especially in 2016 with Trump's victory people started questioning poll accuracy and maybe trusting them a little less.
While 538 did way more than just election predictions that perception of polling accuracy might have affected its overall appeal and Disney's willingness to keep investing in it. It's a mix of factors for sure a tough media environment business decisions and maybe some shifting public trust in polls themselves.
Reactions from the Media World: "Catastrophic Loss" and "Idiotic" Decision
The media world is definitely feeling the loss of 538. Journalists and media folks are tweeting and posting about how important 538 was as a resource. One journalist called it a "Catastrophic Loss not only for election journalism but also as an election data resource." Others are saying it's an "idiotic" decision to shut it down and that 538 was an "amazing brand" doing "GREAT work."
Even folks in sports media are chiming in. Apparently 538 used to have a strong sports analytics section that sports data fans really appreciated. It sounds like 538 filled a unique niche in data-driven journalism that will be missed.
What's Nate Silver Doing Next? Trump Approval Rating Dashboard and Beyond
So what about Nate Silver? Well he's not disappearing. He's still got his Substack newsletter "Silver Bulletin" and he's already announced some plans. Get ready for a Trump approval ratings dashboard coming soon to his Substack. So if you need your Nate Silver data fix you will know where to find it. It sounds like he is going to keep doing his data-driven thing just in a different format.
Key Takeaways: The End of 538 and What It Means
- FiveThirtyEight is shutting down: Disney is closing the popular political poll and data analysis website as part of broader cuts.
- Nate Silver's creation: Founded in 2008 538 became famous for accurate election predictions and data journalism.
- Financial reasons cited: Disney reportedly didn't see 538 as a sustainable business despite its popularity.
- Part of wider media layoffs: 538's closure is another example of the tough economic climate for media organizations.
- Nate Silver's disappointment: Founder Nate Silver reacted with sadness praising his team but hinting at business challenges.
- Loss for data journalism: Media figures are calling 538's closure a significant loss for election coverage and data analysis.
- Nate Silver's future: He will continue his work on his Substack newsletter "Silver Bulletin".
So Long 538: End of an Era for Data-Driven Politics (for Now?)
It's definitely sad news for anyone who loves data politics and smart analysis. FiveThirtyEight became a trusted source for so many and its closure feels like a real loss for the media landscape. Whether it's due to financial pressures changing media models or just the ups and downs of the news business 538 is signing off. But hey maybe Nate Silver will build something new and data-driven again soon. In the meantime we can always look back at the 538 archives and remember the days when election forecasts were just a little bit more fun and a lot more number-crunchy.